|
Data collection specifics for articles "New Methods to Forecast Passenger Demand. Part 1" and "New Methods to Forecast Passenger Demand. Reference List. Part 2."
DATA COLLECTION
Table 3 - ATL - LAX Neural Network
Prediction Results.
|
Year
|
Q
|
Actual Passengers
|
Predicted Passengers
|
Error (%)
|
|
2005
|
3
|
133,630
|
134,523
|
0.67
|
|
2005
|
2
|
140,930
|
122,499
|
13.08
|
|
2005
|
1
|
123,300
|
131,919
|
6.99
|
|
2004
|
4
|
145,290
|
153,779
|
5.84
|
|
2004
|
3
|
153,130
|
155,031
|
1.24
|
|
2004
|
2
|
173,700
|
134,924
|
22.32
|
|
2004
|
1
|
141,710
|
77,024
|
45.65
|
|
2003
|
4
|
164,210
|
132,065
|
19.58
|
|
2003
|
3
|
152,260
|
119,645
|
21.42
|
|
2003
|
2
|
121,340
|
73,182
|
39.69
|
|
2003
|
1
|
66,100
|
74,031
|
12.00
|
|
2002
|
4
|
76,170
|
69,884
|
8.25
|
|
2002
|
3
|
69,000
|
76,693
|
11.15
|
|
2002
|
2
|
80,330
|
71,753
|
10.68
|
|
2002
|
1
|
71,330
|
71,467
|
0.19
|
|
2001
|
4
|
62,320
|
74,218
|
19.09
|
|
2001
|
3
|
77,140
|
88,768
|
15.07
|
|
2001
|
2
|
90,790
|
86,984
|
4.19
|
|
2001
|
1
|
85,950
|
80,004
|
6.92
|
|
2000
|
4
|
93,240
|
90,439
|
3.00
|
|
2000
|
3
|
95,970
|
88,835
|
7.43
|
|
2000
|
2
|
94,900
|
74,964
|
21.01
|
|
2000
|
1
|
75,790
|
70,032
|
7.60
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
Table 4 - ATL - LAX Independent
Variable R-Squared Values Statistically Significant at the 95% Level.
|
Variable
|
R-Squared
Value
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.69
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.73
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.86
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.88
|
|
ATL - LGB
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.36
|
|
ATL - BUR
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.18
|
|
ATL - SNA
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.43
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.73
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.73
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.10
|
|
ATL - ONT
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.44
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.37
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.56
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.52
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.32
|
|
Total Number of Carriers
|
.63
|
|
Total Daily Seats
|
.90
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
Table 5 - DFW - ORD Neural Network Prediction Results
|
Year
|
Q
|
Actual Passengers
|
Predicted Passengers
|
Error (%)
|
|
2005
|
3
|
167,230
|
150,056
|
10.27
|
|
2005
|
2
|
180,350
|
138,373
|
23.28
|
|
2005
|
1
|
138,310
|
125,230
|
9.46
|
|
2004
|
4
|
159,220
|
145,799
|
8.43
|
|
2004
|
3
|
155,990
|
144,423
|
7.42
|
|
2004
|
2
|
162,590
|
134,523
|
17.26
|
|
2004
|
1
|
124,740
|
111,560
|
10.57
|
|
2003
|
4
|
139,680
|
127,134
|
8.98
|
|
2003
|
3
|
126,960
|
127,100
|
0.11
|
|
2003
|
2
|
137,920
|
120,456
|
12.66
|
|
2003
|
1
|
111,560
|
132,430
|
18.71
|
|
2002
|
4
|
140,600
|
128,381
|
8.69
|
|
2002
|
3
|
127,320
|
131,526
|
3.30
|
|
2002
|
2
|
130,980
|
135,393
|
3.37
|
|
2002
|
1
|
103,960
|
129,747
|
24.80
|
|
2001
|
4
|
117,540
|
133,215
|
13.34
|
|
2001
|
3
|
108,260
|
136,143
|
25.76
|
|
2001
|
2
|
127,660
|
143,048
|
12.05
|
|
2001
|
1
|
113,480
|
127,389
|
12.26
|
|
2000
|
4
|
134,950
|
146,786
|
8.77
|
|
2000
|
3
|
152,260
|
145,720
|
4.30
|
|
2000
|
2
|
166,180
|
141,243
|
15.01
|
|
2000
|
1
|
131,900
|
122,786
|
6.91
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
Table 6 - DFW - ORD
Independent Variable R-Squared Values Statistically Significant at the 95%
level
|
Variable
|
R-Squared
Value
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.09
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.09
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.14
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
..09
|
|
DFW - MDW
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.25
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.23
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.22
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.17
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.43
|
|
Total Number of Carriers
|
.25
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
Table 7 - JFK - MCO Neural Network Prediction Results
|
Year
|
Q
|
Actual Passengers
|
Predicted Passengers
|
Error (%)
|
|
2005
|
3
|
375,850
|
323,375
|
13.96
|
|
2005
|
2
|
356,510
|
310,980
|
12.77
|
|
2005
|
1
|
310,980
|
288,788
|
7.14
|
|
2004
|
4
|
305,580
|
302,046
|
1.16
|
|
2004
|
3
|
310,400
|
279,243
|
10.04
|
|
2004
|
2
|
296,520
|
251,300
|
15.25
|
|
2004
|
1
|
251,300
|
232,269
|
7.57
|
|
2003
|
4
|
247,030
|
233,796
|
5.36
|
|
2003
|
3
|
257,810
|
231,470
|
10.22
|
|
2003
|
2
|
231,570
|
222,717
|
3.82
|
|
2003
|
1
|
222,550
|
229,029
|
2.91
|
|
2002
|
4
|
229,030
|
193,195
|
15.65
|
|
2002
|
3
|
237,580
|
167,267
|
29.60
|
|
2002
|
2
|
171,620
|
141,170
|
17.74
|
|
2002
|
1
|
141,170
|
73,392
|
48.01
|
|
2001
|
4
|
136,560
|
83,448
|
38.89
|
|
2001
|
3
|
151,650
|
121,594
|
19.82
|
|
2001
|
2
|
154,150
|
138,150
|
10.38
|
|
2001
|
1
|
138,150
|
102,629
|
25.71
|
|
2000
|
4
|
136,470
|
89,270
|
34.59
|
|
2000
|
3
|
140,190
|
75,549
|
46.11
|
|
2000
|
2
|
89,270
|
67,346
|
24.56
|
|
2000
|
1
|
68,740
|
68,712
|
0.04
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
Table 8 - JFK - MCO
Independent Variable R-Squared Values Statistically Significant at the 95%
level
|
Variable
|
R-Squared
Value
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.18
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.08
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.95
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.92
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.20
|
|
LGA - MCO
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.53
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.52
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.11
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.70
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.73
|
|
EWR - MCO
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.33
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.39
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.40
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.40
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.18
|
|
ISP - MCO
|
.52
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.13
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.21
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.21
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.17
|
|
Total Number of Carriers
|
.13
|
|
Total Daily Seats
|
.64
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
Table 9 - LGA - DCA Neural Network Prediction Results
|
Year
|
Q
|
Actual Passengers
|
Predicted Passengers
|
Error (%)
|
|
2005
|
3
|
254,700
|
306,398
|
20.30
|
|
2005
|
2
|
321,940
|
321,557
|
0.12
|
|
2005
|
1
|
264,870
|
340,585
|
28.59
|
|
2004
|
4
|
293,200
|
257,062
|
12.33
|
|
2004
|
3
|
256,810
|
284,496
|
10.78
|
|
2004
|
2
|
334,470
|
343,475
|
2.69
|
|
2004
|
1
|
278,040
|
314,895
|
13.26
|
|
2003
|
4
|
310,780
|
321,113
|
3.32
|
|
2003
|
3
|
284,380
|
343,336
|
20.73
|
|
2003
|
2
|
345,650
|
344,900
|
0.22
|
|
2003
|
1
|
276,330
|
346,017
|
25.22
|
|
2002
|
4
|
341,770
|
358,972
|
5.03
|
|
2002
|
3
|
290,960
|
288,778
|
0.75
|
|
2002
|
2
|
315,200
|
248,316
|
21.22
|
|
2002
|
1
|
245,590
|
338,784
|
37.95
|
|
2001
|
4
|
187,660
|
342,270
|
82.39
|
|
2001
|
3
|
243,670
|
361,157
|
48.22
|
|
2001
|
2
|
388,950
|
369,811
|
4.92
|
|
2001
|
1
|
340,030
|
349,453
|
2.77
|
|
2000
|
4
|
388,270
|
386,385
|
0.49
|
|
2000
|
3
|
364,800
|
378,156
|
3.66
|
|
2000
|
2
|
428,460
|
366,266
|
14.52
|
|
2000
|
1
|
353,440
|
346,044
|
2.09
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
Table 10 - LGA - DCA
Independent Variable R-Squared Values Statistically Significant at the 95%
level
|
Variable
|
R-Squared
Value
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.23
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.43
|
|
LGA - BWI
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.10
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.11
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.10
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.33
|
|
LGA - IAD
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.08
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.23
|
|
JFK - DCA
|
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.40
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.13
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.41
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.33
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.09
|
|
JFK - BWI
|
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.15
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.16
|
|
JFK - IAD
|
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.20
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.21
|
|
Total Daily Seats
|
.37
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
Table 11 - ATL - MCO Neural Network Prediction Results
|
Year
|
Q
|
Actual Passengers
|
Predicted Passengers
|
Error (%)
|
|
2005
|
3
|
148,100
|
128,975
|
12.91%
|
|
2005
|
2
|
146,800
|
148,650
|
1.26%
|
|
2005
|
1
|
160,040
|
143,336
|
10.44%
|
|
2004
|
4
|
153,760
|
132,307
|
13.95%
|
|
2004
|
3
|
125,840
|
126,338
|
0.40%
|
|
2004
|
2
|
146,020
|
137,075
|
6.13%
|
|
2004
|
1
|
145,340
|
130,886
|
9.94%
|
|
2003
|
4
|
134,470
|
128,665
|
4.32%
|
|
2003
|
3
|
120,740
|
131,149
|
8.62%
|
|
2003
|
2
|
122,460
|
135,985
|
11.04%
|
|
2003
|
1
|
126,010
|
152,270
|
20.84%
|
|
2002
|
4
|
128,770
|
136,822
|
6.25%
|
|
2002
|
3
|
130,750
|
136,397
|
4.32%
|
|
2002
|
2
|
138,000
|
144,544
|
4.74%
|
|
2002
|
1
|
135,570
|
171,267
|
26.33%
|
|
2001
|
4
|
121,500
|
146,988
|
20.98%
|
|
2001
|
3
|
142,030
|
175,570
|
23.61%
|
|
2001
|
2
|
161,660
|
176,734
|
9.32%
|
|
2001
|
1
|
176,520
|
184,918
|
4.76%
|
|
2000
|
4
|
178,380
|
177,688
|
0.39%
|
|
2000
|
3
|
186,070
|
178,992
|
3.80%
|
|
2000
|
2
|
202,030
|
182,823
|
9.51%
|
|
2000
|
1
|
183,660
|
180,565
|
1.68%
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
Table 12 - ATL - MCO
Independent Variable R-Squared Values Statistically Significant at the 95%
level
|
Variable
|
R-Squared
Value
|
|
Average Ticket Price for Market
|
.16
|
|
Non-Stop Average Ticket Price
|
.15
|
|
Daily Seats
|
.36
|
|
Average Frequency
|
.38
|
|
Average Aircraft Size
|
.35
|
|
Total Number of Carriers
|
.10
|
Actual Passengers source: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B)
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