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Page 3 of 5
In most airline
simulations, and in a majority of the airlines themselves, it is attempted to
compare profitability of a flight by comparing the revenue from the tickets
sold to the operating and fixed costs of the operating flight. When operating
in a solely origin and destination (O&D) market, this is very simple since
all revenues are associated with that one flight. Where the equation becomes
complex is when you factor in connecting passengers. The problem is how do you
prorate the ticket to find what percentage of the revenues are designated to
which flights (Baldanza, 65) . Simply dividing the revenue by the number of
flights is not enough since a fare of $1,000 to fly from Louisville to London, England
can hardly be divided into two $500 segments. Likewise a distance proportion
is not entirely accurate either since several ticket prices are set according
to O&D markets, and while distance is a factor, it is not the most driving
factor in determining the fare. One solution is to separate costs and revenues
by reporting costs per flight, and revenues per city pair. While this is a
more accurate way to determine total profitability of an airline, it makes it
difficult to view the profitability of a single flight. Fortunately, this is
not as central to a simulation since we do not necessarily need to separate
revenues per flight (Baseler, 80).
The first step in
achieving this new, more accurate revenue generating system, is to find actual
(or at least representative) O&D data. Since the only reliable O&D
data is available from the BTS, only U.S. cities will be reported. With the
O&D data, we no longer need to find a weighted average of passenger
enplanements at both cities, rather we now have a representation of the total
number of passengers traveling on that distinct market.
Since the O&D data
does not discriminate regarding time of day, it is necessary to divide the
passengers according to the time the flight operates. An accurate
representation of this was achieved by designating a percentage of the daily
O&D passengers grouped by timeframe.
|
Time
Frame
|
% Daily O&D
Passengers at Departure Time
|
% Daily O&D
Passengers at Arrival Time
|
|
0530
? 0800
|
10
|
14
|
|
0801
? 1000
|
18
|
15
|
|
1001
? 1400
|
20
|
15
|
|
1401
? 1600
|
15
|
20
|
|
1601
? 2000
|
23
|
20
|
|
2001
? 2400
|
12
|
14
|
|
0001
- 0529
|
2
|
2
|
|
Totals
|
100
|
100
|
Table 1 ? O&D distribution
throughout the day
Another factor to the
accurate assignment of revenues is to adjust for the frequencies offered. For
this a deviation percentage from the original demand is used.
|
Frequency
|
Deviation from Original Demand
|
|
1
|
- 15%
|
|
2
|
-10%
|
|
3
|
-5%
|
|
4
|
0
|
|
5
|
+ 5%
|
|
6
|
+ 10%
|
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7 and Greater
|
+ 15%
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Table 2 ? Demand deviation due to
frequency
This takes into account the
passengers preference for a flight convenient to the time they want to depart.
The higher the frequencies, the more likely you will offer a convenient flight
to the passenger, and more passengers will choose to fly your route. This is
the driving force behind the ?S-curve,? and its requirements are satisfied
through the above deviations.
Another factor to
include when determining how many passengers will fly on a particular flight is
whether or not the flight is a non-stop flight. Since passengers tend to prefer
non-stop over connecting flights, a deviation cumulative to the frequency
deviation can be developed.
|
Number of Connections
|
Deviation from Cumulative Demand
|
|
Non-Stop
|
+ 20%
|
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One Connection
|
-5%
|
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Two Connections
|
-20%
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Table 3 ? Demand deviation due to number
of connections
This accommodates the notion that a
passenger will choose an available non-stop with all other factors equal at
least 40% of the time over a two connection trip. Other factors that can be
taken into consideration are the passengers preference for jets over
turboprops, amenities, airport lounges, etc. For the sake of simplicity in the
following example, we will only use the two deviations.
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